Saturday, January 26, 2008

A State I Know NOTHING About

South Carolina.

But what I do know is that whatever momentum still exists for the Democrats has been moving towards John Edwards. If it's not clear, Edwards is that little red line at the bottom of the graph above.

So does Edwards have much of a chance to win today? I'd guess not—the real battle is between Clinton and Obama. The stronger than expected finish for Edwards does mean his message resonated in South Carolina, and it will be interesting to see how many former Obama and Clinton supporters moved towards his camp after the recent mudslinging between the frontrunners.

I see the Democratic race being about Super Tuesday; South Carolina is only a momentum shifter leading into the 22-state contest. If Obama does win tonight, what kind of bounce can he expect in states like California or New Jersey?

One New Jersey poll released this past week by Quinnipiac University showed that 74% of Clinton supporters were "not likely at all" or "not too likely" to change their minds before February 5. Compare that to 32% of Obama supporters who are either "somewhat likely" or "very likely" to change their minds and today's outcome in South Carolina may not matter too much.

Watch the bounce.

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