Thursday, January 3, 2008

Caucus (Early) Morning Predictions

It's 3:00 AM. Early, yes, but there's no stopping in Des Moines.

There's a buzz here in the city—and today doesn't look like it's going to be politics as usual.

So you ask...'who's gonna win?' and 'who's gonna finish where?'

Predicted Democratic Finishes

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton (tie)
2. John Edwards (tie)
3. Joe Biden
4. Bill Richardson
5. Chris Dodd

Predicted Republican Finishes

1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. John McCain
4. Ron Paul
5. Fred Thompson
6. Rudy Giuliani

You bet, 6th place for Rudy. Write off the painful finish because Giuliani has passed on Iowa, but it's still a painful finish that will really hurt the mayor's campaign. Why? Because McCain will finish a VERY CLOSE third today in Iowa, and when he wins New Hampshire you bet February 5th will seem far, far away.

Oh, about that Obama part. The energy in Iowa has one significant flavor to it — youth. Youth means Barack Obama, but it also means voters realigning below the 15% caucus cutoff won't be moving to Hillary Clinton.

Prove me wrong, Iowa.

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