Sens. McCain & Ayotte – Peterborough Surrogate Event

To view the full gallery from the Mitt Romney surrogate appearance in a full screen slide show click here.

Obama Can Start Smiling

In no particular order:

- Things are looking terrific for Obama in Pennsylvania. Exit polls show Obama leading McCain 60/40 among women in the state, enough to all but guarantee a crucial Keystone State victory.

- Early votes from Ohio throw Obama pretty far into the lead and exit polls statewide show him holding an 8-10% lead--a figure in line with polls conducted over the past weeks and days.

- Well, that might just be it. McCain admitted yesterday that he needed Pennsylvania to win and, save a miracle for him, it's looking like he's not going to get that. With Obama holding close (and poised to jump ahead) in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana, McCain is riding in the back seat tonight; if Obama wins ANY one of those three states the election is over.

Simple as that.


(Photo credit: Luke N. Vargas. 2007-2009. All Rights Reserved)

The Middle of the Night

Fresh (but still pretty groggy) from a two-hour nap I'm back at the computer thinking ahead to 1:00 AM Central African Time when, should the data start flowing relatively quickly, results from Indiana should begin to trickle in. The arrival of exit poll results at midnight is hardly news, and I won't be seeking out any of those numbers.

2:00 AM brings in Indiana, Virginia, and Georgia, three very interesting states whose results can start to paint the picture for what to expect in traditional Republican strongholds. Though I'm hardly predicting an Obama upset in Georgia, if it comes down to less than 4-5% it could indicate the beginning of an Obama blowout.

3:00 AM will usher in results from the all-important states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida--states that McCain has to win.

3:50-4:15 AM Should everything pan out the way I'm seeing it now, the election should be called by most networks during this time. The clouds should be parting on numbers from Ohio and Pennsylvania. If McCains makes it past the results of VA, OH, NC, PA, and FL he'll be way ahead of expectations and we might be in for a close fight, but it is this 25-30 minute window where I can see the breakpoint falling.

Cheers to a long night!

The Close

One final day.

John McCain and Barack Obama take the mound for their last pitches to the American people.

"Freedom" from John McCain


"Something" from Barack Obama


In true form Obama continues to hammer down "change," "bringing America together," and "one nation, one people." Obama's ad also features the massive crowd displays that have been such a driving force in promoting his public appeal.

McCain contrasts with Obama in emphasizing his career, experience, and values. Sen. McCain also presents voters with a more specific choice in dealing with the problems our country faces--"don't hope for a stronger America, vote for one."

McCain drives home his role as a politician and presidential candidate while Obama presents himself as a movement. No surprises or strategical changes here.

Watching these final television advertisements it's amazing to see just how far this election has come. Not only do all the pieces come together (McCain's crowd footage was taken during the debut of his running mate, Sarah Palin, when many questioned the presence of cinema cameras a the event) in the final days of the campaign, but the full weight of our country's upcoming decision is beginning to set in.

Should America decide not to elect Obama we will have passed on a promising Democratic leader promising long-overdue change to the way business has been handled in Washington, not to mention the failure of a rare political cult figure to capitalize on the biggest, most expensive marketing campaign and cultural movement in history.

Should America choose not to elect John McCain we will have passed on one of the most potentially-moderate, experienced, distinguished, and honorable Republicans to be presented to voters in the coming decades. No Republican candidate with credentials and merit like McCain seems to be coming down the pipeline anytime soon.

A historic choice and a historic 48 hours await us.

Why This One's More Difficult

Last summer there were a number of bloggers (including myself) and political observers that saw a road forward for John McCain when times were bad.

Return to your principles. Continue being "The Maverick." Lose the campaign staff that's saying your campaign is finished. 

John McCain did what he needed to do and came from behind to win the New Hampshire Primary and the Republican nomination.

Now McCain is in a similar hole, but this time he's only got one week left to dig himself out. Are eleventh hour comebacks possible in general elections? Of course, simply look back to Bush in 2000, Reagan in 1980, or Nixon in 1968. What I see McCain lacking here is a platform from which to persuasively deliver his closing argument.

The debates are over (and seemed to benefit Obama), McCain has gone negative and tried with little success to go after Obama on Bill Ayers or ACORN (two things that I thought would and should have been given more media attention), and Obama's "redistribute the wealth" comments aren't scaring the living daylights out of voters like they would have happened eight or even four years ago.

It's that "closing argument," the final establishment of your campaign's tone, that can turn around an election. Judging by the courses of that Obama and McCain chose to take with their final tones, I'm ready to rule out any hope of a McCain comeback.

When Barack Obama was most successful in blowing past Hillary Clinton he pretended she didn't exist; he didn't reference her name in speeches, and he fast-forwarded us to a vision of the country with him as the nominee. Clinton, on the other hand, tried to draw distinctions between herself and Obama. The issues Hillary focused on were important ones, but her strategy was doomed to look lackluster compared to Obama's "it's about me" course.

Now Obama is doing the same thing. As John McCain has been repeatedly talking about Obama's "redistribute the wealth" vs. his own "create wealth," Obama has merely returned to talking about the "change" that an Obama victory would bring.

Not bothered by money, ahead in the polls, and with more and more early votes being cast for him, Obama is well on his way to walking off with a win.

Ballot. Cast.

And so it was that I cast my first presidential election ballot while sitting on the floor of the farm living room in The Crags, South Africa. Straining to read the ballot measures in the darkness and skipping over the section marked "President of the United States" for fear that I would make the wrong decision, I slumped against the couch and took as long as possible to enjoy the moment.

On the ballot measures, my votes broke down as follows:

Question 1 (to eliminate the State Income Tax by 2010): NO
Question 2 (to decriminalize marijuana possesion): YES
Question 3 (to ban dog racing): YES

Not much to report on Senate, Congressional, and Statewide races, but the decision of picking a President did slow me up. Neither candidate stood for all the positions that I support:

- Energy independence through alternative energy subsidies, a corporate carbon tax, and domestic oil drilling
- No timetable for Iraq withdrawal
- Comprehensive immigration reform that a) doesn't create two classes of Americans and b) that puts the emphasis on strengthening our southern border with Mexican
- Education reform utilizing charter schools, vouchers, and teacher pay incentives
- A foreign policy of limited intervention and ending the United States' policy of nation-building

You can't always get what you want, but one candidate did edge out the other for me. So what did it come down to?

Well, it was as easy as asking what a certain woman/Senator would have wanted me to do...

Important Steps

A lot of people labeled McCain's decision to return to Washington earlier this week as political grandstanding, but once the publicity settled on that story it is worth pointing out that McCain is back in D.C. today working on the bailout proposal.

Meanwhile, Obama is holding two rallies today in Virginia.

LIVEBLOGGING: McCain on Earmarks

Tonight is one of the few nights of this entire campaign in which McCain has been able to show how the earmark issue is relevant outside of the mere $18 billion that Obama says the issue is vs. $300 billion in tax cuts.

McCain: "Well, $18 billion may not seem like a lot for Barack Obama..."

Is it About Experience?

Thinking back, maybe Wesley Clark should have steered clear of even talking about John McCain's military experience back in June—they are, after all, both military men and could have left it at that–but it is interesting to consider what constitutes the proper experience to be president. Barack Obama and John McCain have lived very different lives and though McCain has more years under his belt it's still up for debate which man is more qualified for the job.

Mitt Romney argued that a President ought to be a businessperson with good managerial experience...

Mike Huckabee made the case that a President ought to be a person of faith...

Rudy Giuliani implied that the best President is an "American hero"...what he falsely believes he is...

Senator, Governor, Ambassador, Mayor, CEO, outsider, former Vice-President, war hero, activist, community organizer...the list of potential backgrounds for a President goes on and on. Barack Obama and John McCain can each make their claim that they are the most experienced or the best prepared for the Presidency, but I can't help but think that the candidate with the most experience has not been the winner of a Presidential election in a long time.

John Kerry, Al Gore, Bob Dole, and George H. W. Bush (though he was elected to one term) all served as either high-ranking political leaders and (with the exception of Gore) decorated soldiers but were ultimately unsuccessful in their bids for the White House. That begs the question of whether John McCain's obvious advantage (in my opinion) in the experience category will necessarily help in his fight against Barack Obama.

I bet it won't, though in an ideal world it should.

When one stands at a disadvantage in a certain area it's common practice to try and go after the person with the advantage. For a good example look no further than George W. Bush's successful belittling of John Kerry's far superior military background in 2004. 

John McCain began his career as a national political figure in 1983, the same year Barack Obama graduated from college, but with the underdog's upper hand and the ability for half-billion dollar campaigns to create and shift campaign narratives, I just don't see experience playing as big a role in this election as it should.

Young Voters and the Party Conventions

I was thinking this morning about which party did a better job of reaching out to young voters at the conventions these last few weeks.

New voter registration numbers indicate that the Democrats are registering many more voters, especially those under 25 years old, than the Republicans are, but the momentum seems to have changed in the last few days.

While the RNC crowd lacked many young voters and the four day program seemed to lack much attention to the issues most important to young people, the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate his stirred up a new wave of enthusiasm among young conservatives.

One article I read last week said Sarah Palin "has lived the life of the voters who will decide this election."

That line has stayed with me ever since.

"Hockey Mom," as opposed to "Hippie Mom," finds its place in the middle of the new American family:

—Hockey Mom
—Parents were high school sweethearts
—large, young family
—a special needs child
—a teenage pregnancy

That certainly is not the typical First or Second Family of Presidents passed, but it's the portrait of an increasingly common family in the United States.

Another noteworthy distinction between the "Hippie Moms" and "Hockey Moms," is that there is often less angst among the sons and daughters of Hockey Moms towards their parents. Where young voters wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton because she reminded them of their annoying parents, young voters in St. Paul for the RNC confessed to me that Sarah Palin reminded them, at least in part, of their mother or a close friend's parent....in a good way.

Barack Obama's daughters may be very telegenic, but Sarah Palin and her family's story seems as if it's been pulled straight out of a MTV reality show.

We'll see if the momentum among young voters stays with McCain/Palin in the coming weeks....

Aug. 29, 2008 — Political Courier Webcast

McCain-Palin

McCain-Palin

I brought her name up for some serious consideration on July 13th.

We still thought it would be Pawlenty through last night, but it would have taken an IDIOT to pick Mitt Romney, and John McCain is a smart smart man.

Panoramic Experimenting

Click to enlarge.

Where McCain Can (and is) Going Wrong

How will history remember Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign?

To start, a lot of people didn't start appreciating her until she had practically lost the nomination to Barack Obama.

Though Clinton came across as "cold" and "impersonal," she could give a great speech, bring a crowd to its feet, handle a tough question, and make meaningful connections with those around her. Under the shadow of Obama, however, none of that seemed to matter. To the media and a large group of Democrats, Hillary was merely playing an old type of politics?one that went after Obama and didn't always play nice.

As an ex-Clinton supporter and (though not as a result of Clinton's defeat) a proud fan of John McCain, I see his campaign slowly falling into the traps that sealed Hillary's fate.

For one, McCain's campaign never seems to bring a story or issue to the media or change the dialogue of the campaign. Instead, McCain spends his time in the public spotlight giving good speeches about things that don't surprise us. I could have predicted McCain would talk about his two favorite issues?energy independence and Iraq?in Portland, ME on Monday, much the same way it was no surprise Hillary Clinton gave a very obvious speech about rebuilding America's infrastructure after the Minneapolis bridge collapse last August.

The thing is, both speeches were extremely intelligent, effective, and well-received, but they were delivered in front of small audiences at times when they'd attract little attention. That sounds like where McCain's finding himself right now.

When he should be focusing on creating publicity around his own campaign, McCain has spent most of his time going after Obama. Whether it's criticizing his foreign policy experience, his "anti-troops" remarks, or the media's love affair with him (though this actually does exist), McCain and the GOP are all about Obama. Check out the RNC's homepage this morning:


In 2000 and 2004 the Republicans always seemed to be on message and didn't resort to these silly little jokes about their Democratic opponenets; their attacks used to be mean, serious, and effective. Now, the RNC homepage is little more than a parody of itself.

During his speech in Portland on Monday, McCain repeatedly brought up Barack Obama?how he should of condemned MoveOn.org's "General Betray-us" ad and that he lacked judgment in not supporting the surge in Iraq. Meanwhile, Obama travels the world speaking to presidents and diplomats about issues "larger" than partisan politics.

Whether or not Obama really does transcend party politics is up in the air, but McCain would be wise to get off Obama's case for a while and make a case of his own.

Little More Than "On Message"

PORTLAND, ME. John McCain;s "public event" in Portland yesterday was unlike any campaign stop I've covered. Part red and white checkered picnic tables and part jacket and tie affair, I was expecting to find a more sober scene outside the Maine Military Museum. It's common knowledge that the McCain campaign has been looking for ways of taking the media attention off of Barack Obama's trip to the Europe and the Middle East, but I was expecting a more spirited attempt from his schedulers.

To start, visiting Maine was an interesting choice by McCain. Though McCain could pass off the appearance as an opportunity to throw his weight behind Maine's freshman Senator, Susan Collins, who is up for re-election this year, she already leads her Democratic opponent up to 25% in recent polls. John McCain also faces a steep uphill battle in Maine against Barack Obama; the state has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections, and that trend seems unlikely to change in a year Obama is making inroads in a handful of traditional Republican strongholds.

The McCain campaign likely chose the Maine Military Museum to surround their candidate with veterans and an audience that respects McCain's foreign policy credentials. McCain didn't hesitate to draw distinctions between McCain's military experience and Obama's perceived inexperience and decision to travel abroad to improve his international reputation.

"I'd rather be here at the Maine Military Museum than anywhere else in the world," McCain opened his remarks. Focusing on two issues of national security?America's dependence on foreign oil and the War on Terror?McCain worked to show that Obama's stances on critical issues fail to take into consideration larger policy implications.

Finally, after asking the veterans in the crowd to identify themselves (about one in four raised their hands), McCain vocalized his support for the current strategy in Iraq and General David Petraeus. Obama, McCain said, refused to condemn MoveOn.org's "General Betray-us" advertisement last year. The crowd booed Obama and cheered for McCain, but it was far from the rousing moment McCain would need to overshadow Obama.

McCain is the more experienced candidate, especially on issue of national security and foreign policy, but he'll need more than patriotic picnics and friendly crowds to chip away at Obama's momentum.

Get Me Out of Here

I've been holed up in the attic editing videos all week, and while clips load and transitions render I've been surfing around YouTube and RealClearPolitics, reading and watching whatever I find.

As a result of working for VoteGopher.com, a website that compares the presidential candidates on the issues, I have learned a great deal about John McCain and Barack Obama on policies that matter a lot to me. Using VoteGopher's "My Ballot" feature and opting not to put unduly high emphasis on "Message" or "Controversies," my results came out to be a tie?22 points for McCain, 22 points for Obama.

To be honest, I was floored by those results. Back in June I took a similar candidate quiz and, though by a small margin, favored Obama. After spending hours and hours editing 25 videos comparing Obama and McCain head-to-head, things are getting a lot closer in my mind.

After hearing McCain and Obama talk about terrorism, Iraq, and Afghanistan on the campaign trail countless times, I no longer see Obama's move to pull out of Iraq immediately as a good thing, and after reading this today I wonder if Obama's foreign policy plans aren't based on some popular assumptions about Afghanistan as "the right war."

Now that I've sorted through position videos and papers about the two candidates' positions on education, I wonder if McCain is really leading the way by proposing to move towards the use of vouchers. This article makes it seem as if Obama's plan is a little "old school" in an un-Obama kind of way.

And on energy, I'm not convinced that we shouldn't explore options for certain domestic oil drilling projects. It seems stubborn to rule out cleaner and safer oil drilling as a healthy complement to the widespread introduction of alternative energies in the United States. McCain has long intrigued me on the issue of the economy, but he's now starting to convince me.

On top of it, all I seem to hear about Obama recently is "Speech in Berlin" and "Open Convention!" Not to mention a stead stream of creepy, Obama-cult garbage like this video on YouTube:

[If we're accusing Obama of having a big ego, we should label Will.I.Am and all the other celebrity political preachers in his videos similarly]



Give me an open road to Maine, some McCain events, and two days or so to clear my head from Obama?he and I really need some time apart.

371 Days Ago

A blog post to be proud of. Read it HERE.

Change "Primary Season" to "General Election."

Change "Hillary Clinton" to "Barack Obama."

Otherwise, the story is pretty much the same as it was last July.

If there's an underdog strong enough to fight to the finish, it's John McCain.

Unnecessary

...Especially because McCain has very talented video folks working for him and has a whole slew of classier web ads and TV spots he could be putting out there. It's in these below-the-belt videos against Obama that McCain stands to lose credibility among crucial voting blocks, and I would much rather see either of the videos below than more of the "Obama doesn't support the troops" baloney:

Make it Two

Add a "Rochester, NH Town Hall" with John McCain into the mix for next week, and my excitement for next Monday as really escalated.

After three Obama events in a row I'm ready to hit the campaign trail with McCain again, especially in a city I've yet to visit for the 2008 campaign (Portland, ME) and a town where I already have a lot of great memories (Rochester, NH).

On August 8th, 2007 I visited Rochester, NH's Opera House to see Hillary Clinton deliver a policy speech about the critical state of America's infrastructure. In case you don't remember, the Minneapolis bridge collapse had occurred just weeks before, and I was quick to jump on Clinton's case for delivering what I saw as an opportunistic speech.

You can read my full post about the event HERE.

Though I was far from a Hillary supporter last August, the event at the Rochester Opera House would lead me to build a campaign friendship of sorts with an older couple in Rochester that would really open my eyes to Hillary Clinton and her message. It is safe to say that the event began to change the way I thought of Senator Clinton, and I will remember that event as one of the highlights of my time on the campaign trail.

So is McCain's event in Rochester next week destined to be equally memorable? Perhaps.

To start, McCain is holding his town in the same Opera House I visited almost a year ago...

A New State

Next Monday (July 21st) I will be in Portland, Maine to attend campaign events for Senator John McCain.

In a state John Kerry won by 8%, McCain currently trails Barack Obama by nearly double that margin. It will certainly be interesting to see what strategy McCain adopts in this large yet electorally-unimportant state as he tries to chip away at Obama's lead.

More than that, Maine will become the seventh state in which I've covered the 2008 campaign—a development I'm looking forward to celebrating.