Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Ohio Exit Polls

The most noteworthy nugget of information I'm pulling from a skim of Democratic exit polls from Ohio tonight are votes by "Independents." Where Obama beat Clinton among independents 69% to 30% in Virginia — by 39% — Obama is only winning among Ohio independents 54% to 46% — by 8%.

Exit polling numbers can't be taken too seriously, but these numbers could evidence a shift in the way independent voters view Obama. Obama is a liberal Democrat by all measures, not necessarily the middle of the road "progressive" that voters in previous states believed.

If Clinton stays in the race after tonight (and my guess is she will), than the long stretch of time before the Pennsylvania primary could work to her advantage. Where Obama's momentum was continued from Super Tuesday to Wisconsin without pause, the long six weeks before Pennsylvania could benefit Clinton like it appears to have in Ohio (and perhaps Texas, too).

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