As the Democratic nomination essentially turns into a three man (man and woman, rather) race, the Republican contest isn't getting any easier to sort out. Check out the following LA Times/Bloomberg Poll:
Rudy Giuliani - 29%
Fred Thompson - 15%
John McCain - 12%
Mitt Romney - 8%
Newt Gingrich - 7%
Tommy Thomson - 3%
Sam Brownback - 2%
Duncan Hunter - 2%
Tom Tancredo - 2%
UNSURE - 14%
The entrance of Fred Thompson into the race, in my mind, only shows that even fewer Republican voters are really commited to any one candidate at this point. Reagan did a pretty good job of balancing the actor with the president, but Thompson makes everything seem like it's primetime TV. Long and short of it, he won't get too far.
If you add Thompson's 15% to Gingrich's 7% (I know some people out there are convinced he might be able to take his campaign deep into 2008 (should he announce), but a vote for Gingrich at this stage is simply a vote for the Republican Platform 101) and the 14% camped in the "unsure" realm, and you've got yourself 36% of the Republican voting pool.
It's clear this 36% won't go to Giuliani--the candidates they are alligned with now don't represent the more liberal politics that Giulini has been attached with.
With a loaded wallet going into the summer months, Mitt Romney COULD be the recipient of a lot of attention and COULD start to move up in the polls, but if he thinks he can win this contest with his money he's sorely wrong--second-hand reports from fellow students and friends who interned with Mitt while he was governor indicate to me that some of those closest to him aren't the ones that love him the most, and in fact, some of the Republicans I know who jumped on the opportunity to work for the Republican governor left his office only months later as Democrats.
Where is that 36% going? Suggestions?
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