Gary Johnson – Riverwoods Retirement Community

Governor Gary Johnson holds a town hall meeting at the Riverwoods Retirement Community in Exeter, NH on November 10, 2011.

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Rick Santorum – New Boston Town Hall

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Granite State Patriots "Constitutional Conversation"

Let me say first that I enjoy new formats at political events. After announcing plans to hold a typical presidential debate and repeatedly switching venues in the past weeks, the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC (wordy, huh?) finally held their "Constitutional Conversation" at a conference center in Hampton this past Thursday.

In attendance were Buddy Roemer, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. Combined these men garner under 10% of New Hampshire GOP support in recent polls; remove Gingrich from the equation and that number couldn't be more than 3%. Two at a time, the candidates nestled into large green leather armchairs and asked each other questions.



Sure the lighting was awful (no surprise for an event designed to be broadcast on the radio) and the energized personalities of the New Hampshire didn't turn up (it would have been interesting to see the likes of Huntsman or Ron Paul try their hand at the crowd), but my takeaway from the event was how utterly unenergized New Hampshire Republicans are despite professing to be so angry at the President and determined to unseat him.

Asked by the moderator what was the single biggest failing of the Obama Administration, Newt Gingrich paused before dryly pronouncing: "Where do I begin? We could be here all night." The crowd worked itself up into a standing ovation, and it struck me: the 2012 Republicans think that the mere mention of Obama will send voters the country over into an ecstatic rush to the polls.



But a long general election will require a sustained energy as the Republican nominee goes head to head against Obama, articulating exactly why each of the President's policies really is the rebel-rousing assault on the average American the current crop of candidates seem to believe. I don't doubt that a candidate like Gingrich could perform well in this capacity, but a party that assumes rhetorical questions and the supposedly self-evident destructive nature of Obama's legislative accomplishments needs to come to terms with the fact that independent voters view such a style of campaigning to be amateurish and oppositional.

All the while, Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer have been with sparse crowds while they energetically articulate exciting new visions of how the Republican Party ought to position itself in the decades ahead. Having spent a considerable amount of time with Democratic candidates the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd in 2007, I know what it's like for talented politicians to languish in relative obscurity, but there's no equivalent of a Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton frontrunner espousing a complete and sustainable platform for the 2012 Republicans.



And so Newt Gingrich rises in the polls and his quips at debates become more and more a part of the Republican articulation of the 2012 election. At last night's CBS "Commander in Chief" Debate, Gingrich deflected a question concerning what he would do to fix health care once Obamacare had been repealed. "In thirty seconds?' he retorted, begging the audience to follow him in evaluating the supposed absurdity of such a question, maligning the media all the while for injecting a degree of practicality into the debate.

Mr. Gingrich, find an answer. You'll need to make it good and say it often if you think you've got the chops to get into the game. The longer Republicans dither around with candidates who assume they can hit a grand slam in the general election with so little effort, the more the intellectual upper hand becomes Obama's.


[View my complete gallery of photos from this event HERE]

Buddy Roemer – Hampstead Campaign Stop

Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer is running for President.

It wasn't clear that anyone at the Beantown Exchange coffee shop in Hampstead, NH knew that when he sat down with the shop's owner and a supporter at the front of the room and began an in depth discussion of topics as varied as Occupy Wall Street, Chinese labor practices, and the necessity of restructuring student loans.


Following the chat, Buddy worked the room, passing out business cards and answering a number of questions on progressive education and alternative energy with a couple whose daughter excitedly rolled around on a couch.



Anyone in New Hampshire should make a point to meet up with Governor Roemer in the coming weeks—he's rented an apartment in Manchester, frequently conducts public events, and would be more than happy for you to pull up a seat next to him and ask a question. You'll be glad you did.

View the complete gallery of the event here.

Jon Huntsman — Hudson Town Hall

Governor Jon Huntsman holds a Veterans Day town hall meeting at American Legion Post 48 in Hudson, New Hampshire.

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The Two Month Run

On the eve of tonight's debate in Michigan, here are my thoughts of the current state of the GOP nomination contest. 

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The pace of GOP candidates shuffling in and out of the spotlight has again quickened. Herman Cain  held on longer than Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry in the spotlight, but many in the media say the two or three week period that has accumulated of increasing (esp. in its negativivity) coverage of Mr. Cain will ultimately hurt him, as he's ensnared by continual accusations. The reaction to this news seemed different at first — the influential voices of the party hesitated in throwing him to the dogs — but it will undoubtedly happen. This ignores the fact that the media was beginning to coalesce around the opinion that 9-9-9 couldn't hold up as a serious policy matter in the long term.

As the field effectively narrows, there's more concern about tossing out each successive hot candidate. Who's looking to step in now?

Mitt Romney has been trying to make his newly-minted Tea Party-infused persona stick with voters, but the results are mixed. That leaves him with the 25% of the polls he's had all along. These voters who support the more moderate Mitt persona he's clung to until recently, but their bonafide Tea Party-leaning neighbors enjoy sampling the field before realizing he might be the most viable option.

Newt Gingrich is making a run. I will get to see Newt for the first time this coming week in New Hampshire, but having only watched him on TV thus far, he falls into a category of candidates comprised of Huntsman and, to a lesser extent, Rick Santorum, as seasoned politicians less liable to have derailing allegations levied against them. At the very least, whatever exposes are written about these men, they would likely expose elements of their character that while surprising to some voters,  would likely be less sensational and captivating to the national audience, as opposed to a sexual scandal. Cain's debacle may be akin to that of Tiger Woods, as though the allegations themselves me be ultimately survivable, is too great a distraction to overcome them while running a successful campaign or excelling in a championship-level golf career.

Rick Santorum is the most solidly social-conservative candidate in a year when even the most disheartened Obama-supporter couldn't see themselves voting for him. Gingrich has unpleasant personal commitment issues that would plague him were he to pull into a threatening position against Romney. Both Santorum and Gingrich would have trouble drawing in the moderate voters a Republican nominee will need to defeat Obama. Far right wingers and Tea Partiers may not see things that way, but a growing number of Republican primary voters will, especially in a state like New Hampshire.

In that environment I could see Jon Huntsman poised for some increased attention in national polling for the first time. His campaign has already funneled a substantial amount of time, staff, and energy into New Hampshire, and the state could reward him for this at the last minute. So long as Huntsman doesn't disappear from the state in the coming weeks, he needs to make his case on the national stage. He'll need to reign in his recent comedic approach to debates and lay bare the necessity for 2012 Republicans to find value in a consistent candidate whose stances on key issues amount to convictions, not mere "positions."

If Huntsman wants to make a run, he'll need to remain established in New Hampshire (just as Huckabee had built a solid foundation in Iowa leading into mid-November '07) while gradually developing a frequent movement through other early states. The relocating of his campaign to New Hampshire was a wise strategic move, and Florida would have required too many resources and campaign dollars to become a bastion of his support. Even a mere 5% jump for Huntsman in national polling could trigger a growing wave of support. Once the Huntsman Super PAC starts unrolling the television commercials the official campaign can't afford, his path to the nomination could clear up significantly and the MSM will be left scratching their heads why they didn't take Huntsman seriously for so long.

Huntsman's failure to gain steam this far certainly isn't a strategic advantage for him, but it may just work to his favor. Unlike Huckabee, however, Huntman's job will be considerably more difficult; he has need to convince a large swath of Republican voters that Obama is not a candidate the average GOP candidate can hit a homerun against.

I get the impression working the campaign trail and talking to voters that Obama is perceived as being insurmountably weak. Consequently, a Republican no matter how conservative they are could stand to take him down. The Huntsman campaign, more than anything, is a testament to the acknowledgment of this fact, and for that reason can rightly claim possesses the best chance of unseating the President.

Mr. Texas in the Granite State

Browsing through my photos from Rick Perry’s visit to Concord, NH this past Friday, I struggled to find a shot of him where it looked like he was speaking to those assembled around him. Even when he talks, Perry’s face hardly moves. In my reporter’s notebook I penned a single word to describe his demeanor that afternoon: “Languid.” Considering Romney’s ebullience and eagerness to shake hands with everyone around him at events, the contrast with Perry is striking.

So you can understand my surprise on Saturday morning as I hit the web to search for footage of Rick Perry’s keynote speech at the “Cornerstone” function in Manchester and found the now-viral video of him showcasing his sudden and absurd foray into comedic punchiness.

At the Barley House restaurant in Concord only hours before his evening speech, Perry settled down to talk with a small circle of supporters away from the mass of photographers. A man extended his hand and introduced himself as one of New Hampshire’s “best farmers.” Perry not so directly responded by musing whether or not Stonyfield Farm (whose organic yogurt Perry said he enjoyed) was a Vermont or New Hampshire company.

“New Hampshire,” the farmer retorted dryly, before pointing out that Stonyfield’s owner is an Obama-supporter.

I can’t tell you exactly what Governor Perry went on to talk about for the next two or three minutes, but it had something to do the dairy industry and the ethical complications when politics and charity intersect. Everyone nodded along, but Perry had taken the brief meet and greet moment in a direction that nobody could have expected, wandering onto whatever topic seemed to spring to mind.