Mitt Romney – Hopkinton Town Hall

(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2011. All Rights Reserved)

Michele Bachmann – Moultonborough Town Hall

(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2011. All Rights Reserved)

Jon Huntsman – Tilton, NH Town Hall

Jon Huntsman just wrapped up a town hall meeting at a beautiful train depot in Tilton, New Hampshire.

Below are some photos I've had time to upload before heading to Hopkinton to see Mitt Romney.

(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2011. All Rights Reserved)

Huckabee, Meet Herman

Just a few weeks back I postulated that the Republican primary field could give rise to a 2011 incarnation of Mike Huckabee—that is, a candidate with 1) solid conservative credentials, 2) strong debate skills that allow him to appeal to a wide national audience, and 3) who has been in the race for a long time.

Herman Cain fits this criteria and in recent polling has jumped into a statistical dead heat with the fading Rick Perry.

Say what you want about Republican primary voters, but this election cycle they have tired quickly of upstart candidates (see Perry, Bachmann). Even though an early Iowa caucus, South Carolina and Florida primary stand to benefit Mr. Cain, I believe his rise in polling is occurring a month or two prematurely for it to translate into successive primary victories. Mike Huckabee's rise in 2007 occurred in early December and continued into March on the backs of a series of state wins until John McCain was able to sew up the nomination.

Regardless of this assessment, Herman Cain is now a legitimate contender in the Republican race, and I intend to treat him as such on this blog and in future analysis.

Taking Apart the Orlando Debate: Romney's Minor Win

Monday, September 26, 2011

This past Thursday the Republicans held a debate in Orlando.

I've tabulated out some letter grades for the candidates based on their performance. Although there was no outright "winner" last week, Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum did the best job meeting their present campaign needs.

• Romney       B+
• Johnson       B+
• Santorum    B+
• Cain              B
• Gingrich       B
• Perry            B
• Paul              B-
• Huntsman    C+
• Bachmann    C

Had I published these comments on Friday or over the weekend I would have felt compelled to focus on the predictable Perry/Romney tussle and its implications for their primary campaign showdown. But last Thursday's debate was more compelling than that, and involved a wider selection of candidates than the two governors.

Welcome Back to the Political Courier

2008 Election Highlights:

Event Commentary:

•  A NH GOP Primary Debate
•  Hillary and Barack in Unity, NH
•  Joe Biden Sticks Around to Chat
•  Dennis Kucinich Walks the Streets
•  John McCain in Iowa

Opinion:

•  John McCain
•  Hillary Clinton
•  Chris Dodd
•  John Edwards. One, Two, Three.
•  Barack Obama
•  Mike Huckabee

Two Men, Lost in the Crowd

 In late 2007 I wrote here that "I can't stand mitt."

At that time, Mr. Romney was engaged in what seemed like consistent emotional politicking, culminating in the candidate attempting to characterize the grief he would feel should he lose a son (hypothetically) fighting in Iraq. It was emotionless, stiff, and felt very much like an act of theatre.

This past week, the GOP candidates debated at the Reagan Library, and while many of Romney’s characteristics that I disliked in '08 are not gone, his tone has improved decidedly.

Where does the race stand now?

Rick Perry is a go-to guy for referencing. He's the most expressive candidate, sending thumbs-ups to Gingrich, nodding along with Huntsman, etc. I see Perry maintaining this status, as a candidate that others sound off on and sculpt their positions around, but I doubt he can steadily grow his campaign all the while.

Bachmann always hammers on the “repeal Obamacare immediately” urge. So too: "energy is too high, let's have a goal of bringing it down." Cheap gas and no more Obamacare? Agreed, now exit the race and let another candidate say that. Amid Perry’s entrance, and the media’s portrait of a ‘two horse race,’ I struggle to see a scenario in which even a strong showing in Iowa would persuade New Hampshire voters to give Bachmann a second pass.