Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Huckabee, Meet Herman

Just a few weeks back I postulated that the Republican primary field could give rise to a 2011 incarnation of Mike Huckabee—that is, a candidate with 1) solid conservative credentials, 2) strong debate skills that allow him to appeal to a wide national audience, and 3) who has been in the race for a long time.

Herman Cain fits this criteria and in recent polling has jumped into a statistical dead heat with the fading Rick Perry.

Say what you want about Republican primary voters, but this election cycle they have tired quickly of upstart candidates (see Perry, Bachmann). Even though an early Iowa caucus, South Carolina and Florida primary stand to benefit Mr. Cain, I believe his rise in polling is occurring a month or two prematurely for it to translate into successive primary victories. Mike Huckabee's rise in 2007 occurred in early December and continued into March on the backs of a series of state wins until John McCain was able to sew up the nomination.

Regardless of this assessment, Herman Cain is now a legitimate contender in the Republican race, and I intend to treat him as such on this blog and in future analysis.

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