Obama Can Start Smiling

In no particular order:

- Things are looking terrific for Obama in Pennsylvania. Exit polls show Obama leading McCain 60/40 among women in the state, enough to all but guarantee a crucial Keystone State victory.

- Early votes from Ohio throw Obama pretty far into the lead and exit polls statewide show him holding an 8-10% lead--a figure in line with polls conducted over the past weeks and days.

- Well, that might just be it. McCain admitted yesterday that he needed Pennsylvania to win and, save a miracle for him, it's looking like he's not going to get that. With Obama holding close (and poised to jump ahead) in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana, McCain is riding in the back seat tonight; if Obama wins ANY one of those three states the election is over.

Simple as that.


(Photo credit: Luke N. Vargas. 2007-2009. All Rights Reserved)

Granite State Slump

New Hampshire Republicans may have lifted John McCain to primary victories in 2000 and 2008, but McCain doesn't look to be getting much help statewide this time around as h currently trails Barack Obama by nearly 20%.


UPDATE: AND THERE YOU HAVE IT--THE AP HAS CALLED NH FOR BARACK OBAMA.

States Within States

Northwest Indiana (Lake & Porter Counties) are more like Chicago suburbs than parts of Indiana, so expect those areas to help chip away at the 4% deficit Obama is facing currently in Indiana. Lake and Porter counties pulled heavily for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in April's Democratic Primary.

Similarly in Virginia, the band stretching from Richmond to Virginia Beach will pull heavily towards Obama and help break away at McCain's current (and very temporary) 13% lead.

States within states...

Georgia Results vs. Georgia Exit Polls

The first wave of numbers have come in from Georgia and are showing McCain up be a sizable margin. Exit polls, however, are predicting a very tight race.

In Georgia, as well as in Indiana and Virginia, exit polls have put Obama in better position than is being seen in official results; McCain is still leading in Indiana after 20% of votes counted.

Was the McCain campaign right in predicting exit polls would lean towards Obama? Time will tell, but it may just be...

Much Too Fast

It's only the very beginning of the night but the results are pouring in faster than I can make sense of them. Here's what I am seeing through the confusion:

- Obama's moving into the lead in Indiana, a position it looks like he'll remain in. Indiana is a quick pickup for Obama that pulls out the support under a potential McCain comeback. Indiana is a Bush state voting for Obama, enough said.

- Virginia's results are also filtering in and exit polls combined with early numbers show another win for Obama. McCain would have needed a Virginia win to sure up electoral votes to make up for lost GOP states such as Indiana. Should McCain fail to pick up Virginia, this thing could be over very soon

- Finally, in Kentucky, Democrat Bruce Lunsford is still holding even with incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell after 13% of the vote count. It looks like McConnell will eventually win the state, but the numbers are troubling signs for the Republicans.

Indiana and Kentucky

Indiana (at 3%) is a 50/50 matchup. No surprise.

Kentucky (at 9%) is a 50/50 matchup as well, with Mitch McConnell currently trailing Bruce Lunsford by 1%. I don't expect Obama to hold near 50% in Kentucky (and I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped a great deal from where he is now), but the existence of McCain/Lunsford voters (albeit in small quantities)--those who go for McCain on the top ticket and vote out an incumbent Republican in the Senate--could signal success for Kay Hagan in North Carolina even if McCain wins the state...

developing...

My Races

CNN.com has a wonderful feature up today that allows you to select up to 35 races across the country (from presidential contests to Senate, House, Governor, and Ballot Measure contests) and automatically receive updates on a customizable page! Quite exciting for a junkie like me...

Here are "My (Top) Races":

-Georgia Presidential
-Pennsylvania Presidential
-North Carolina Senate
-Minnesota Senate
-California Prop. 8 (Ban on Gay Marriage)
-Massachusetts Question 1 (Repeal State Income Tax)

Waiting on the 1:00 hour...