The Middle of the Night

Fresh (but still pretty groggy) from a two-hour nap I'm back at the computer thinking ahead to 1:00 AM Central African Time when, should the data start flowing relatively quickly, results from Indiana should begin to trickle in. The arrival of exit poll results at midnight is hardly news, and I won't be seeking out any of those numbers.

2:00 AM brings in Indiana, Virginia, and Georgia, three very interesting states whose results can start to paint the picture for what to expect in traditional Republican strongholds. Though I'm hardly predicting an Obama upset in Georgia, if it comes down to less than 4-5% it could indicate the beginning of an Obama blowout.

3:00 AM will usher in results from the all-important states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida--states that McCain has to win.

3:50-4:15 AM Should everything pan out the way I'm seeing it now, the election should be called by most networks during this time. The clouds should be parting on numbers from Ohio and Pennsylvania. If McCains makes it past the results of VA, OH, NC, PA, and FL he'll be way ahead of expectations and we might be in for a close fight, but it is this 25-30 minute window where I can see the breakpoint falling.

Cheers to a long night!

Thank God for Facebook?!

Funny to think that the "Today is Election Day, Get Out and Vote!" banner on Facebook.com will get out more votes than two $500 campaigns...

...off to make a timetable for tonights results...

Here for the Day (and Night)

It's presently 2:54 PM Central African Time. I've been awake for nine hours already, and with the first votes coming in at 6:00 PM EST and Daylight Savings Time now in effect I have another twelve hours to wait before any official results are released.

Thankfully there is no television or radio where I'm staying, so the only access to election results will be through the internet. On top of that I've customized a CNN.com results page with key races to watch and have cropped the window down to prevent me from sneaking a glimpse of the "analysis" that any of the news networks are going to toss around today.

It's all about the numbers tonight.

So as the day continues make sure to return to the Political Courier for some election day insight all the way from lovely the lovely town of The Crags, South Africa!

The Close

One final day.

John McCain and Barack Obama take the mound for their last pitches to the American people.

"Freedom" from John McCain


"Something" from Barack Obama


In true form Obama continues to hammer down "change," "bringing America together," and "one nation, one people." Obama's ad also features the massive crowd displays that have been such a driving force in promoting his public appeal.

McCain contrasts with Obama in emphasizing his career, experience, and values. Sen. McCain also presents voters with a more specific choice in dealing with the problems our country faces--"don't hope for a stronger America, vote for one."

McCain drives home his role as a politician and presidential candidate while Obama presents himself as a movement. No surprises or strategical changes here.

Watching these final television advertisements it's amazing to see just how far this election has come. Not only do all the pieces come together (McCain's crowd footage was taken during the debut of his running mate, Sarah Palin, when many questioned the presence of cinema cameras a the event) in the final days of the campaign, but the full weight of our country's upcoming decision is beginning to set in.

Should America decide not to elect Obama we will have passed on a promising Democratic leader promising long-overdue change to the way business has been handled in Washington, not to mention the failure of a rare political cult figure to capitalize on the biggest, most expensive marketing campaign and cultural movement in history.

Should America choose not to elect John McCain we will have passed on one of the most potentially-moderate, experienced, distinguished, and honorable Republicans to be presented to voters in the coming decades. No Republican candidate with credentials and merit like McCain seems to be coming down the pipeline anytime soon.

A historic choice and a historic 48 hours await us.

Finally, the Simpler Things in Life

Snapshots of a pre-election weekend in South Africa that feels like anything like a pre-election weekend.

"A Sign of Unease"

A great read from John Hopkins' Fouad Ajami.

Save in times of national peril, Americans have been sober, really minimalist, in what they expected out of national elections, out of politics itself. The outcomes that mattered were decided in the push and pull of daily life, by the inventors and the entrepreneurs, and the captains of industry and finance. To be sure, there was a measure of willfulness in this national vision, for politics and wars guided the destiny of this republic. But that American sobriety and skepticism about politics -- and leaders -- set this republic apart from political cultures that saw redemption lurking around every corner.

My boyhood, and the Arab political culture I have been chronicling for well over three decades, are anchored in the Arab world. And the tragedy of Arab political culture has been the unending expectation of the crowd -- the street, we call it -- in the redeemer who will put an end to the decline, who will restore faded splendor and greatness. When I came into my own, in the late 1950s and '60s, those hopes were invested in the Egyptian Gamal Abdul Nasser. He faltered, and broke the hearts of generations of Arabs. But the faith in the Awaited One lives on, and it would forever circle the Arab world looking for the next redeemer.

America is a different land, for me exceptional in all the ways that matter. In recent days, those vast Obama crowds, though, have recalled for me the politics of charisma that wrecked Arab and Muslim societies. A leader does not have to say much, or be much. The crowd is left to its most powerful possession -- its imagination.

Check out the full article here.

Why This One's More Difficult

Last summer there were a number of bloggers (including myself) and political observers that saw a road forward for John McCain when times were bad.

Return to your principles. Continue being "The Maverick." Lose the campaign staff that's saying your campaign is finished. 

John McCain did what he needed to do and came from behind to win the New Hampshire Primary and the Republican nomination.

Now McCain is in a similar hole, but this time he's only got one week left to dig himself out. Are eleventh hour comebacks possible in general elections? Of course, simply look back to Bush in 2000, Reagan in 1980, or Nixon in 1968. What I see McCain lacking here is a platform from which to persuasively deliver his closing argument.

The debates are over (and seemed to benefit Obama), McCain has gone negative and tried with little success to go after Obama on Bill Ayers or ACORN (two things that I thought would and should have been given more media attention), and Obama's "redistribute the wealth" comments aren't scaring the living daylights out of voters like they would have happened eight or even four years ago.

It's that "closing argument," the final establishment of your campaign's tone, that can turn around an election. Judging by the courses of that Obama and McCain chose to take with their final tones, I'm ready to rule out any hope of a McCain comeback.

When Barack Obama was most successful in blowing past Hillary Clinton he pretended she didn't exist; he didn't reference her name in speeches, and he fast-forwarded us to a vision of the country with him as the nominee. Clinton, on the other hand, tried to draw distinctions between herself and Obama. The issues Hillary focused on were important ones, but her strategy was doomed to look lackluster compared to Obama's "it's about me" course.

Now Obama is doing the same thing. As John McCain has been repeatedly talking about Obama's "redistribute the wealth" vs. his own "create wealth," Obama has merely returned to talking about the "change" that an Obama victory would bring.

Not bothered by money, ahead in the polls, and with more and more early votes being cast for him, Obama is well on his way to walking off with a win.